Poisson Helper
Estimate likely scores and results from each team's expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Type in the home team’s expected goals (you can base this on your own research or xG figures)
- Type in the away team’s expected goals
- Take a look at the probabilities for a home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Browse the scoreline probability grid to see the chances of specific final scores
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Poisson distribution apply to betting?
The Poisson distribution is a handy statistical model that estimates the chance of a certain number of events (goals) happening within a set time frame. In football betting it’s a popular way to forecast match scorelines using each team’s expected goals averages.
Where do I get expected goals figures?
You can pick up expected goals (xG) numbers from football statistics websites. Or, if you prefer, work out a team’s average goals per game from their recent fixtures. More advanced approaches also factor in home advantage, the strength of the opponent, and current form.
Just how accurate is the Poisson model?
The Poisson model gives you a sensible starting point for football forecasts. Its biggest weakness is that it treats goals as independent events, which isn’t always the case in real life (think momentum swings or red cards). It performs best for pre-match predictions in leagues where scoring tends to be steady and predictable.
Which betting markets work well with Poisson?
Poisson is most often applied to 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. With a few tweaks it can also be used for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time forecasts.